Player breakdown
Demarcus Ayers
Houston · 2016 Draft Class
5-9182 lbs7th round, 229th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~32
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
12%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | PIT | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 1 | 26.5 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Houston | American | 13 | 11 | 130 | 1 | 11.8 | 10 |
| 2014 | Houston | American | 13 | 33 | 335 | 2 | 10.2 | 25.8 |
| 2015 | Houston | American | 14 | 98 | 1,222 | 6 | 12.5 | 87.3 |
| Career | 40 | 142 | 1,687 | 9 | 11.9 | 42.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
5%
ML model output
Context Prob
53%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.228
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 1.02x — route-running independent of system+0.180
Speed score 73.3 — below average weight-adjusted athleticism+0.152
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.768
-10.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.726
Improvement accelerating (+8.4) — getting better faster each year-0.537