Player breakdown
DeMario Douglas
Liberty · 2023 Draft Class
5-8179 lbs6th round, 210th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
11%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | NWE | 14 | 7 | 79 | 49 | 561 | 11.4 | 0 | 40.1 |
| 2024 | NWE | 17 | 7 | 87 | 66 | 621 | 9.4 | 3 | 36.5 |
| 2025 | NWE | 17 | 0 | 46 | 31 | 447 | 14.4 | 3 | 26.3 |
| Career | 48 | 14 | 212 | 146 | 1,629 | 11.2 | 6 | 33.9 | |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
3%
ML model output
Context Prob
56%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 1.03x — route-running independent of system+0.195
BMI 27.2 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (179 lbs)+0.151
Speed score 92.1 — below average weight-adjusted athleticism+0.135
Top Negative Factors
+2.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.754
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.634
Improvement accelerating (+6.3) — getting better faster each year-0.524