Player breakdown
Denzel Mims
Baylor · 2020 Draft Class
6-3207 lbs2nd round, 59th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
79%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | NYJ | 9 | 8 | 44 | 23 | 357 | 15.5 | 0 | 39.7 |
| 2021 | NYJ | 11 | 3 | 23 | 8 | 133 | 16.6 | 0 | 12.1 |
| 2022 | NYJ | 10 | 4 | 25 | 11 | 186 | 16.9 | 0 | 18.6 |
| Career | 30 | 15 | 92 | 42 | 676 | 16.1 | 0 | 22.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Baylor | Big 12 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 2.4 |
| 2017 | Baylor | Big 12 | 12 | 61 | 1,087 | 8 | 17.8 | 90.6 |
| 2018 | Baylor | Big 12 | 12 | 55 | 794 | 8 | 14.4 | 66.2 |
| 2019 | Baylor | Big 12 | 14 | 66 | 1,020 | 12 | 15.5 | 72.9 |
| Career | 48 | 186 | 2,925 | 28 | 15.7 | 60.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
82%
ML model output
Context Prob
65%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.116
Physical production synergy+0.428
2.4 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.249
Top Negative Factors
+5.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.705
Improvement accelerating (+44.3) — getting better faster each year-0.322
Accounted for 2.35 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.154