Player breakdown
Deon Butler
Penn St. · 2009 Draft Class
5-10182 lbs3rd round, 91st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~40
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
38%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | SEA | 16 | 0 | 42 | 15 | 175 | 11.7 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 2010 | SEA | 13 | 8 | 70 | 36 | 385 | 10.7 | 4 | 29.6 |
| 2011 | SEA | 5 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 | 10.2 |
| Career | 34 | 8 | 119 | 57 | 611 | 10.7 | 4 | 18.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Penn State | Big Ten | 11 | 37 | 691 | 9 | 18.7 | 62.8 |
| 2006 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 48 | 637 | 2 | 13.3 | 49 |
| 2007 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 47 | 633 | 4 | 13.5 | 48.7 |
| 2008 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 47 | 810 | 7 | 17.2 | 62.3 |
| 2011 | Central Michigan | MAC | 12 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 8.2 | 4.1 |
| 2012 | Central Michigan | MAC | 10 | 6 | 84 | 1 | 14 | 8.4 |
| 2013 | Central Michigan | MAC | 7 | 10 | 94 | 0 | 9.4 | 13.4 |
| 2014 | Central Michigan | MAC | 13 | 30 | 424 | 1 | 14.1 | 32.6 |
| Career | 92 | 231 | 3,422 | 24 | 14.8 | 37.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
37%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.237
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.287
Physical production synergy+0.255
Top Negative Factors
+3.2 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.759
Efficiency consistency: 1.21 — highly consistent across seasons-0.304
Efficiency composite: 0.62 — average combined efficiency-0.212