Player breakdown
Derek Kinder
Pittsburgh · 2009 Draft Class
6-1200 lbs7th round, 251st overallAge: ~40
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
47%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Pitt | Big East | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0.4 |
| 2005 | Pitt | Big East | 11 | 37 | 374 | 3 | 10.1 | 34 |
| 2006 | Pitt | Big East | 12 | 57 | 847 | 6 | 14.9 | 70.6 |
| 2008 | Pitt | Big East | 13 | 36 | 422 | 3 | 11.7 | 32.5 |
| Career | 44 | 131 | 1,646 | 13 | 12.6 | 37.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
17%
ML model output
Context Prob
68%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 22% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.159
Recruit dominator synergy+0.522
0.4 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.274
Top Negative Factors
-17.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.752
Improvement accelerating (+281.3) — getting better faster each year-0.523
Physical production synergy-0.498