Player breakdown
Devin Lucien
Arizona St. · 2016 Draft Class
6-1190 lbs7th round, 225th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
49%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 7 | 10 | 188 | 0 | 18.8 | 26.9 |
| 2013 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 11 | 19 | 339 | 2 | 17.8 | 30.8 |
| 2014 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 13 | 29 | 225 | 2 | 7.8 | 17.3 |
| 2015 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 13 | 66 | 1,075 | 8 | 16.3 | 82.7 |
| Career | 44 | 124 | 1,827 | 12 | 14.7 | 41.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
48%
ML model output
Context Prob
57%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.154
BMI 25.1 — ideal frame for NFL WR (190 lbs)+0.230
0.62 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.199
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+4.7) — getting better faster each year-0.458
Physical production synergy-0.349
Team averaged 41.0 pass attempts/game — pass-heavy spread offensive system-0.215