Player breakdown
Devin Smith
Ohio St. · 2015 Draft Class
6-0196 lbs2nd round, 37th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
56%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | NYJ | 10 | 3 | 28 | 9 | 115 | 12.8 | 1 | 11.5 |
| 2016 | NYJ | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 5 |
| 2019 | DAL | 4 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 113 | 22.6 | 1 | 28.3 |
| 2021 | JAX | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Career | 22 | 5 | 41 | 15 | 248 | 16.5 | 2 | 11.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 13 | 14 | 294 | 4 | 21 | 22.6 |
| 2012 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 12 | 30 | 618 | 6 | 20.6 | 51.5 |
| 2013 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 14 | 44 | 660 | 8 | 15 | 47.1 |
| 2014 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 15 | 33 | 931 | 12 | 28.2 | 62.1 |
| Career | 54 | 121 | 2,503 | 30 | 20.7 | 46.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
55%
ML model output
Context Prob
56%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.275
0.56 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.250
BMI 26.6 — ideal frame for NFL WR (196 lbs)+0.249
Top Negative Factors
-8.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.755
Recruit dominator synergy-0.235
Improvement accelerating (+2.2) — getting better faster each year-0.204