Player breakdown
Devin Thomas
Michigan St. · 2008 Draft Class
6-2216 lbs2nd round, 34th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~39
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
46%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | WAS | 16 | 1 | 27 | 15 | 120 | 8 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 2009 | WAS | 14 | 10 | 47 | 25 | 325 | 13 | 3 | 23.2 |
| 2010 | CAR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2011 | NYG | 16 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Career | 47 | 11 | 78 | 43 | 482 | 11.2 | 3 | 10.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 10 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 15 | 9 |
| 2007 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 13 | 79 | 1,260 | 8 | 15.9 | 96.9 |
| 2011 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.4 |
| Career | 35 | 86 | 1,355 | 9 | 15.8 | 38.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
13%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.245
BMI 27.7 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (216 lbs)+0.233
Accounted for 3.21 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.206
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.459
+1.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.542
Improvement accelerating (+13.0) — getting better faster each year-0.371