Player breakdown
Dez Fitzpatrick
Louisville · 2021 Draft Class
6-1208 lbs4th round, 109th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~28
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
59%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | TEN | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 1 | 12.3 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Louisville | ACC | 13 | 45 | 699 | 9 | 15.5 | 53.8 |
| 2018 | Louisville | ACC | 12 | 31 | 422 | 3 | 13.6 | 35.2 |
| 2019 | Louisville | ACC | 13 | 35 | 635 | 6 | 18.1 | 48.8 |
| 2020 | Louisville | ACC | 11 | 43 | 833 | 3 | 19.4 | 75.7 |
| Career | 49 | 154 | 2,589 | 21 | 16.8 | 52.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
62%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 18% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.292
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.273
BMI 27.4 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (208 lbs)+0.217
Top Negative Factors
-3.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.754
0.43 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college-0.316
Recruit dominator synergy-0.229