Player breakdown
D.K. Metcalf
Mississippi · 2019 Draft Class
6-3228 lbs2nd round, 64th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~28
EliteAll-Conference x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
77%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | SEA | 16 | 15 | 100 | 58 | 900 | 15.5 | 7 | 56.3 |
| 2020 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 129 | 83 | 1,303 | 15.7 | 10 | 81.4 |
| 2021 | SEA | 17 | 17 | 129 | 75 | 967 | 12.9 | 12 | 56.9 |
| 2022 | SEA | 17 | 17 | 141 | 90 | 1,048 | 11.6 | 6 | 61.6 |
| 2023 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 119 | 66 | 1,114 | 16.9 | 8 | 69.6 |
| 2024 | SEA | 15 | 12 | 108 | 66 | 992 | 15 | 5 | 66.1 |
| 2025 | PIT | 15 | 15 | 99 | 59 | 850 | 14.4 | 6 | 56.7 |
| Career | 112 | 108 | 825 | 497 | 7,174 | 14.4 | 54 | 64.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Ole Miss | SEC | 2 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| 2017 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 39 | 646 | 7 | 16.6 | 53.8 |
| 2018 | Ole Miss | SEC | 7 | 26 | 569 | 5 | 21.9 | 81.3 |
| Career | 21 | 67 | 1,228 | 14 | 18.3 | 58.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
85%
ML model output
Context Prob
53%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 19% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.329
Physical production synergy+0.344
6.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.278
Top Negative Factors
+1.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.768
Accounted for 1.49 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.424
Improvement accelerating (+48.7) — getting better faster each year-0.300