Player breakdown
Donnie Avery
Houston · 2008 Draft Class
5-11192 lbs2nd round, 33rd overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~42
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
39%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | STL | 15 | 12 | 102 | 53 | 674 | 12.7 | 3 | 44.9 |
| 2009 | STL | 16 | 16 | 97 | 47 | 589 | 12.5 | 5 | 36.8 |
| 2011 | TEN | 8 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 45 | 15 | 1 | 5.6 |
| 2012 | IND | 16 | 15 | 124 | 60 | 781 | 13 | 3 | 48.8 |
| 2013 | KAN | 16 | 14 | 71 | 40 | 596 | 14.9 | 2 | 37.3 |
| 2014 | KAN | 6 | 3 | 26 | 15 | 176 | 11.7 | 0 | 29.3 |
| Career | 77 | 60 | 431 | 218 | 2,861 | 13.1 | 14 | 37.2 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Houston | CUSA | 11 | 18 | 293 | 2 | 16.3 | 26.6 |
| 2005 | Houston | CUSA | 12 | 44 | 688 | 5 | 15.6 | 57.3 |
| 2006 | Houston | CUSA | 14 | 57 | 852 | 5 | 14.9 | 60.9 |
| 2007 | Houston | CUSA | 13 | 91 | 1,456 | 7 | 16 | 112 |
| Career | 50 | 210 | 3,289 | 19 | 15.7 | 65.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
13%
ML model output
Context Prob
89%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.389
Accounted for 3.33 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.221
Speed × production: 145.2 — elite combined athletic output+0.214
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.697
Physical production synergy-0.558
Improvement accelerating (+4.0) — getting better faster each year-0.439