Player breakdown
Donovan Brown
San Diego State · 2026 Draft Class
6-3180 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
3%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Syracuse | ACC | 13 | 27 | 321 | 1 | 11.9 | 24.7 |
| 2025 | San Diego State | MWC | 13 | 33 | 518 | 2 | 15.7 | 39.8 |
| Career | 26 | 60 | 839 | 3 | 14.0 | 32.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
2%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.458
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.281
Class YPR rank: top 21% — strong per-target efficiency+0.222
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.258
-12.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.552
Physical production synergy-0.374