Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Dri Archer
Dri Archer

Player breakdown

Dri Archer

Kent St. · 2014 Draft Class

5-8173 lbs3rd round, 97th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

5%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2014PIT120107233.301.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2009Kent StateMAC1119231312.221
2010Kent StateMAC12167514.76.3
2012Kent StateMAC1439561414.440.1
2013Kent StateMAC1025327413.132.7
Career47991,1941212.125.4

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

1%

ML model output

Context Prob

30%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

1

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

BMI 26.3 — ideal frame for NFL WR (173 lbs)+0.153
11.1 avg YPR per season — average consistent efficiency+0.150
25.4 career ypg — limited college production+0.140

Top Negative Factors

-26.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.763
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.704
Physical production synergy-0.532

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)