Player breakdown
Eli Heidenreich
Navy · 2026 Draft Class
6-0198 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
22%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Navy | American | 12 | 19 | 382 | 4 | 20.1 | 31.8 |
| 2024 | Navy | American | 13 | 39 | 671 | 6 | 17.2 | 51.6 |
| 2025 | Navy | American | 13 | 51 | 941 | 6 | 18.5 | 72.4 |
| Career | 38 | 109 | 1,994 | 16 | 18.3 | 52.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
6%
ML model output
Context Prob
52%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
43.0% TD share at small school — dominant alpha receiver red-zone role+0.305
Class YPR rank: top 5% — elite per-target efficiency+0.208
BMI 26.9 — ideal frame for NFL WR (198 lbs)+0.205
Top Negative Factors
-1.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.767
Physical production synergy-0.513
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.414