Player breakdown
Elijah Metcalf
Southern Mississippi · 2026 Draft Class
5-9170 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~23
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
5%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Middle Tennessee State | CUSA | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| 2022 | Middle Tennessee State | CUSA | 13 | 26 | 309 | 2 | 11.9 | 23.8 |
| 2023 | Middle Tennessee State | CUSA | 12 | 54 | 634 | 5 | 11.7 | 52.8 |
| 2024 | Marshall | Sun Belt | 5 | 20 | 194 | 3 | 9.7 | 38.8 |
| 2025 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 13 | 54 | 683 | 2 | 12.6 | 52.5 |
| Career | 47 | 158 | 1,872 | 12 | 11.8 | 39.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
4%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.482
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.240
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.182
Top Negative Factors
+1.2 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.722
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.611
Improvement accelerating (+12.1) — getting better faster each year-0.596