Player breakdown
Ernest Wilford
Virginia Tech · 2004 Draft Class
6-4226 lbs4th round, 120th overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~47
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
18%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | JAX | 15 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 271 | 14.3 | 2 | 18.1 |
| 2005 | JAX | 16 | 8 | 74 | 41 | 681 | 16.6 | 7 | 42.6 |
| 2006 | JAX | 16 | 12 | 74 | 36 | 524 | 14.6 | 2 | 32.8 |
| 2007 | JAX | 16 | 14 | 74 | 45 | 518 | 11.5 | 3 | 32.4 |
| 2008 | MIA | 7 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 2010 | JAX | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Career | 72 | 37 | 265 | 145 | 2,022 | 13.9 | 14 | 28.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Virginia Tech | Big East | 11 | 12 | 141 | 0 | 11.8 | 12.8 |
| 2001 | Virginia Tech | Big East | 11 | 8 | 100 | 1 | 12.5 | 9.1 |
| 2002 | Virginia Tech | Big East | 14 | 51 | 925 | 7 | 18.1 | 66.1 |
| 2003 | Virginia Tech | Big East | 13 | 55 | 886 | 3 | 16.1 | 68.2 |
| Career | 49 | 126 | 2,052 | 11 | 16.3 | 41.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
0%
ML model output
Context Prob
50%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Class YPR rank: top 17% — elite per-target efficiency+0.246
Accounted for 3.41 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.186
BMI 27.5 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (226 lbs)+0.173
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.320
-15.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.592
Improvement accelerating (+5.6) — getting better faster each year-0.424