Player breakdown
Ethan Kilmer
Penn St. · 2006 Draft Class
7th round, 209th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
61%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Penn State | Big Ten | 12 | 15 | 236 | 3 | 15.7 | 19.7 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
63%
ML model output
Context Prob
49%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.075
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.839
Recruit dominator synergy+0.508
Top Negative Factors
+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.738
0.25 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.468
Accounted for 0.71 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.350