Player breakdown
Evan Spencer
Ohio St. · 2015 Draft Class
6-1185 lbs6th round, 187th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~33
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
15%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 10 | 3 | 78 | 1 | 26 | 7.8 |
| 2012 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 11 | 12 | 136 | 0 | 11.3 | 12.4 |
| 2013 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 10 | 22 | 216 | 3 | 9.8 | 21.6 |
| 2014 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 15 | 15 | 149 | 3 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| Career | 46 | 52 | 579 | 7 | 11.1 | 12.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
11%
ML model output
Context Prob
41%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.014
Recruit dominator synergy+0.479
7.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.258
Top Negative Factors
-39.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.750
0.15 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.480
Improvement accelerating (+1.8) — getting better faster each year-0.383