Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Freddie Brown
Freddie Brown

Player breakdown

Freddie Brown

Utah · 2009 Draft Class

6-4195 lbs7th round, 252nd overallAge: ~39
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

15%

SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2005UtahMWC4243021.510.8
2006UtahMWC1317196011.515.1
2006South CarolinaSEC914147010.516.3
2007UtahMWC122021901118.3
2007South CarolinaSEC1217195011.516.3
2008UtahMWC1377900711.769.2
2008South CarolinaSEC776619.49.4
Career701541,766811.525.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

10%

ML model output

Context Prob

46%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

2

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 12% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.018
Recruit dominator synergy+0.324
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 1.03x — route-running independent of system+0.195

Top Negative Factors

-22.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.731
Improvement accelerating (+19.9) — getting better faster each year-0.570
Physical production synergy-0.502

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)