Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Greg Salas
Greg Salas

Player breakdown

Greg Salas

Hawaii · 2011 Draft Class

6-1210 lbs4th round, 112th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

83%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2011STL6038272649.8044
2013NYJ8013814317.9017.9
2014NYJ10223816720.9016.7
2015BUF20534113.7020.5
2016BUF21648922.3144.5
Career283855070414.1125.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2007HawaiiWAC7335111.75
2008HawaiiWAC1457831314.659.4
2009HawaiiWAC131061,590815122.3
2010HawaiiWAC141191,8891415.9134.9
Career482854,3452615.290.5

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

77%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

3

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 13% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.256
+34.5 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.293
5.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.259

Top Negative Factors

Physical production synergy-0.645
Improvement accelerating (+53.0) — getting better faster each year-0.406
0.09 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.232

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)