Player breakdown
Henry Ruggs III
Alabama · 2020 Draft Class
5-11188 lbs1st round, 12th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~27
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | LVR | 13 | 12 | 43 | 26 | 452 | 17.4 | 2 | 34.8 |
| 2021 | LVR | 7 | 7 | 36 | 24 | 469 | 19.5 | 2 | 67 |
| Career | 20 | 19 | 79 | 50 | 921 | 18.4 | 4 | 46.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Alabama | SEC | 14 | 12 | 229 | 6 | 19.1 | 16.4 |
| 2018 | Alabama | SEC | 15 | 46 | 741 | 11 | 16.1 | 49.4 |
| 2019 | Alabama | SEC | 12 | 40 | 746 | 7 | 18.7 | 62.2 |
| Career | 41 | 98 | 1,716 | 24 | 17.5 | 41.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
21%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
9
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 33% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.166
0.59 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.253
Class YPR rank: top 9% — elite per-target efficiency+0.219
Top Negative Factors
-12.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.747
Physical production synergy-0.478
Accounted for 1.84 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.418