Player breakdown
Jack Velling
Michigan State · 2026 Draft Class
6-5245 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
3%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 11 | 16 | 281 | 3 | 17.6 | 25.5 |
| 2023 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 12 | 29 | 438 | 8 | 15.1 | 36.5 |
| 2024 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 12 | 36 | 411 | 1 | 11.4 | 34.3 |
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 12 | 36 | 359 | 3 | 10 | 29.9 |
| Career | 47 | 117 | 1,489 | 15 | 12.7 | 31.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
35%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.337
Efficiency consistency: 1.07 — highly consistent across seasons+0.161
Volume + efficiency: 0.57 — solid combined output within draft class+0.157
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 0% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.570
+8.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.499
Physical production synergy-0.420