Player breakdown
Jaelen Strong
Arizona St. · 2015 Draft Class
6-2217 lbs3rd round, 70th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~32
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | HOU | 10 | 1 | 24 | 14 | 161 | 11.5 | 3 | 16.1 |
| 2016 | HOU | 8 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 131 | 9.4 | 0 | 16.4 |
| 2017 | JAX | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 1 | 38 |
| Career | 19 | 3 | 52 | 31 | 330 | 10.6 | 4 | 17.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 14 | 75 | 1,122 | 7 | 15 | 80.1 |
| 2014 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 12 | 82 | 1,165 | 10 | 14.2 | 97.1 |
| Career | 26 | 157 | 2,287 | 17 | 14.6 | 88.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
83%
ML model output
Context Prob
50%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.200
Physical production synergy+0.311
Improvement accelerating (+0.0) — getting better faster each year+0.300
Top Negative Factors
55.3 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.176
Team averaged 38.9 pass attempts/game — balanced offensive system-0.168
Recruit dominator synergy-0.164