Player breakdown
Jaelon Darden
North Texas · 2021 Draft Class
5-7174 lbs4th round, 129th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
16%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | TAM | 9 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 2022 | TAM | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 13 | 0 | 2.2 |
| 2024 | CLE | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Career | 28 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 75 | 8.3 | 0 | 2.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | North Texas | CUSA | 14 | 32 | 281 | 3 | 8.8 | 20.1 |
| 2018 | North Texas | CUSA | 13 | 48 | 575 | 4 | 12 | 44.2 |
| 2019 | North Texas | CUSA | 12 | 76 | 736 | 12 | 9.7 | 61.3 |
| 2020 | North Texas | CUSA | 9 | 74 | 1,190 | 19 | 16.1 | 132.2 |
| Career | 48 | 230 | 2,782 | 38 | 12.1 | 58.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
10%
ML model output
Context Prob
47%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Accounted for 3.54 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.206
Speed score 87.2 — below average weight-adjusted athleticism+0.192
BMI 27.2 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (174 lbs)+0.185
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.827
+5.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.717
Physical production synergy-0.607