Player breakdown
Jahan Dotson
Penn St. · 2022 Draft Class
5-11178 lbs1st round, 16th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | WAS | 12 | 10 | 61 | 35 | 523 | 14.9 | 7 | 43.6 |
| 2023 | WAS | 17 | 16 | 83 | 49 | 518 | 10.6 | 4 | 30.5 |
| 2024 | PHI | 17 | 6 | 33 | 19 | 216 | 11.4 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 2025 | PHI | 17 | 10 | 36 | 18 | 262 | 14.6 | 1 | 15.4 |
| Career | 63 | 42 | 213 | 121 | 1,519 | 12.6 | 12 | 24.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Penn State | Big Ten | 8 | 13 | 203 | 0 | 15.6 | 25.4 |
| 2019 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 27 | 488 | 5 | 18.1 | 37.5 |
| 2020 | Penn State | Big Ten | 9 | 52 | 884 | 8 | 17 | 98.2 |
| 2021 | Penn State | Big Ten | 12 | 91 | 1,182 | 12 | 13 | 98.5 |
| Career | 42 | 183 | 2,757 | 25 | 15.1 | 65.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
54%
ML model output
Context Prob
73%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.276
BMI 24.8 — ideal frame for NFL WR (178 lbs)+0.241
0.60 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.210
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.491
Improvement accelerating (+4.8) — getting better faster each year-0.336
+13.5 ypg vs. draft class average — above average-0.289