Player breakdown
Jalen Hurd
Baylor · 2019 Draft Class
6-5226 lbs3rd round, 67th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~30
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
15%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Tennessee | SEC | 13 | 35 | 221 | 2 | 6.3 | 17 |
| 2015 | Tennessee | SEC | 13 | 22 | 190 | 2 | 8.6 | 14.6 |
| 2016 | Tennessee | SEC | 7 | 10 | 81 | 2 | 8.1 | 11.6 |
| 2018 | Baylor | Big 12 | 12 | 69 | 946 | 4 | 13.7 | 78.8 |
| Career | 45 | 136 | 1,438 | 10 | 10.6 | 32.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
9%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.006
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.88 — elite recruit at elite school+0.177
BMI 26.8 — ideal frame for NFL WR (226 lbs)+0.176
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+3.3) — getting better faster each year-0.454
Physical production synergy-0.385
0.33 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.344