Player breakdown
Jalen McMillan
Washington · 2024 Draft Class
6-1197 lbs3rd round, 92nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~24
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
27%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | TAM | 13 | 12 | 58 | 37 | 461 | 12.5 | 8 | 35.5 |
| 2025 | TAM | 4 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 178 | 14.8 | 0 | 44.5 |
| Career | 17 | 14 | 73 | 49 | 639 | 13.0 | 8 | 37.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Washington | Pac-12 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 5.3 |
| 2021 | Washington | Pac-12 | 11 | 39 | 470 | 3 | 12.1 | 42.7 |
| 2022 | Washington | Pac-12 | 13 | 79 | 1,098 | 9 | 13.9 | 84.5 |
| 2023 | Washington | Pac-12 | 11 | 45 | 559 | 5 | 12.4 | 50.8 |
| Career | 38 | 164 | 2,143 | 17 | 13.1 | 56.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
0%
ML model output
Context Prob
76%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
5.3 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.278
BMI 26.0 — ideal frame for NFL WR (197 lbs)+0.195
56.4 career ypg — limited college production+0.135
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.454
+2.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.711
Physical production synergy-0.547