Player breakdown
Jalen Nailor
Michigan St. · 2022 Draft Class
5-11186 lbs6th round, 191st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
38%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | MIN | 15 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 179 | 19.9 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 2023 | MIN | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | MIN | 17 | 7 | 42 | 28 | 414 | 14.8 | 6 | 24.4 |
| 2025 | MIN | 17 | 8 | 53 | 29 | 444 | 15.3 | 4 | 26.1 |
| Career | 55 | 16 | 114 | 69 | 1,066 | 15.4 | 11 | 19.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 8 | 8 | 138 | 2 | 17.3 | 17.3 |
| 2019 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 4 | 15 | 106 | 0 | 7.1 | 26.5 |
| 2020 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 7 | 26 | 515 | 4 | 19.8 | 73.6 |
| 2021 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 9 | 37 | 694 | 6 | 18.8 | 77.1 |
| Career | 28 | 86 | 1,453 | 12 | 16.9 | 51.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
7
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Class YPR rank: top 16% — elite per-target efficiency+0.256
BMI 25.9 — ideal frame for NFL WR (186 lbs)+0.223
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.181
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.322
-2.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.612
Physical production synergy-0.419