Player breakdown
Jalen Reagor
TCU · 2020 Draft Class
5-11206 lbs1st round, 21st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~27
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
11%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | PHI | 11 | 11 | 54 | 31 | 396 | 12.8 | 1 | 36 |
| 2021 | PHI | 17 | 13 | 57 | 33 | 299 | 9.1 | 2 | 17.6 |
| 2022 | MIN | 17 | 0 | 13 | 8 | 104 | 13 | 1 | 6.1 |
| 2023 | NWE | 11 | 1 | 23 | 7 | 138 | 19.7 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 2024 | LAC | 8 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 100 | 14.3 | 0 | 12.5 |
| Career | 64 | 27 | 159 | 86 | 1,037 | 12.1 | 4 | 16.2 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 14 | 33 | 576 | 8 | 17.5 | 41.1 |
| 2018 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 13 | 72 | 1,061 | 9 | 14.7 | 81.6 |
| 2019 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 12 | 43 | 611 | 5 | 14.2 | 50.9 |
| Career | 39 | 148 | 2,248 | 22 | 15.2 | 57.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
3%
ML model output
Context Prob
57%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.436
37.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.296
BMI 28.7 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (206 lbs)+0.228
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.429
+1.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.543
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.374