Player breakdown
Jalen Royals
Utah St. · 2025 Draft Class
6-0205 lbs4th round, 133rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~23
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
85%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | KAN | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Utah State | MWC | 13 | 71 | 1,080 | 15 | 15.2 | 83.1 |
| 2024 | Utah State | MWC | 7 | 55 | 834 | 6 | 15.2 | 119.1 |
| Career | 20 | 126 | 1,914 | 21 | 15.2 | 95.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
92%
ML model output
Context Prob
47%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 17% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.183
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.604
+39.7 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.248
Top Negative Factors
Height-adjusted speed: 4.42s — good speed for frame-0.153
Best season came before final year — may have plateaued-0.132
Recruit dominator synergy-0.129