Player breakdown
Jalen Tolbert
South Alabama · 2022 Draft Class
6-1194 lbs3rd round, 88th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
71%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | DAL | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 2023 | DAL | 17 | 6 | 36 | 22 | 268 | 12.2 | 2 | 15.8 |
| 2024 | DAL | 17 | 15 | 79 | 49 | 610 | 12.4 | 7 | 35.9 |
| 2025 | DAL | 13 | 8 | 34 | 18 | 203 | 11.3 | 1 | 15.6 |
| Career | 55 | 30 | 152 | 91 | 1,093 | 12.0 | 10 | 19.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 12 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 12 | 5 |
| 2019 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 12 | 27 | 521 | 6 | 19.3 | 43.4 |
| 2020 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 11 | 64 | 1,085 | 8 | 17 | 98.6 |
| 2021 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 12 | 82 | 1,474 | 8 | 18 | 122.8 |
| Career | 47 | 178 | 3,140 | 22 | 17.6 | 66.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
35%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.479
BMI 25.6 — ideal frame for NFL WR (194 lbs)+0.253
5.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.253
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.648
Improvement accelerating (+23.6) — getting better faster each year-0.502
Physical production synergy-0.422