Player breakdown
Jarett Dillard
Rice · 2009 Draft Class
5-10191 lbs5th round, 144th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~40
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
50%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | JAX | 7 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 106 | 17.7 | 0 | 15.1 |
| 2011 | JAX | 14 | 5 | 50 | 29 | 292 | 10.1 | 1 | 20.9 |
| Career | 21 | 5 | 58 | 35 | 398 | 11.4 | 1 | 19.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Rice | CUSA | 11 | 35 | 524 | 5 | 15 | 47.6 |
| 2006 | Rice | CUSA | 13 | 91 | 1,247 | 21 | 13.7 | 95.9 |
| 2007 | Rice | CUSA | 12 | 79 | 1,057 | 14 | 13.4 | 88.1 |
| 2008 | Rice | CUSA | 13 | 87 | 1,310 | 20 | 15.1 | 100.8 |
| Career | 49 | 292 | 4,138 | 60 | 14.2 | 84.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
51%
ML model output
Context Prob
40%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.378
54.0% TD share at small school — dominant alpha receiver red-zone role+0.313
Recruit dominator synergy+0.277
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.581
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.388
Improvement accelerating (+1.5) — getting better faster each year-0.282