Player breakdown
Jaron Tibbs
Kansas State · 2026 Draft Class
6-4190 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
15%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Purdue | Big Ten | 8 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 8.4 | 5.3 |
| 2024 | Purdue | Big Ten | 12 | 25 | 305 | 2 | 12.2 | 25.4 |
| 2025 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 12 | 47 | 595 | 3 | 12.7 | 49.6 |
| Career | 32 | 77 | 942 | 5 | 12.2 | 29.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
14%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 20% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.163
Recruit dominator synergy+0.449
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.231
Top Negative Factors
-4.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.694
Improvement accelerating (+13.2) — getting better faster each year-0.576
0.25 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.433