Player breakdown
Jaylin Noel
Iowa St. · 2025 Draft Class
5-10194 lbs3rd round, 79th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~24
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $1.2M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | HOU | 17 | 3 | 35 | 26 | 292 | 11.2 | 2 | 17.2 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 13 | 39 | 269 | 0 | 6.9 | 20.7 |
| 2022 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 12 | 60 | 572 | 3 | 9.5 | 47.7 |
| 2023 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 12 | 66 | 820 | 7 | 12.4 | 68.3 |
| 2024 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 14 | 80 | 1,194 | 8 | 14.9 | 85.3 |
| Career | 51 | 245 | 2,855 | 18 | 11.7 | 56.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
BMI 27.8 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (194 lbs)+0.196
Speed score 104.5 — strong weight-adjusted athleticism+0.150
49.2 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities+0.132
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.298
+1.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.708
Physical production synergy-0.582