Player breakdown
Jerrel Jernigan
Troy · 2011 Draft Class
5-9185 lbs3rd round, 83rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~37
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | NYG | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | NYG | 9 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 2013 | NYG | 15 | 3 | 45 | 29 | 329 | 11.3 | 2 | 21.9 |
| 2014 | NYG | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 | 20 |
| Career | 34 | 4 | 61 | 38 | 391 | 10.3 | 2 | 11.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Troy | Sun Belt | 12 | 30 | 337 | 3 | 11.2 | 28.1 |
| 2008 | Troy | Sun Belt | 12 | 77 | 868 | 5 | 11.3 | 72.3 |
| 2009 | Troy | Sun Belt | 13 | 71 | 1,101 | 4 | 15.5 | 84.7 |
| 2010 | Troy | Sun Belt | 13 | 84 | 822 | 6 | 9.8 | 63.2 |
| Career | 50 | 262 | 3,128 | 18 | 11.9 | 62.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
3%
ML model output
Context Prob
35%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.446
BMI 27.3 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (185 lbs)+0.159
Speed score 93.5 — below average weight-adjusted athleticism+0.147
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.771
+10.4 ypg vs. draft class average — above average-0.729
Physical production synergy-0.436