Player breakdown
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Stanford · 2019 Draft Class
6-2225 lbs2nd round, 57th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
65%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | PHI | 16 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 169 | 16.9 | 1 | 10.6 |
| 2020 | PHI | 8 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 85 | 21.3 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 2021 | PHI | 16 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 18 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Career | 40 | 7 | 35 | 16 | 290 | 18.1 | 1 | 7.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 12 | 24 | 379 | 5 | 15.8 | 31.6 |
| 2017 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 12 | 48 | 781 | 9 | 16.3 | 65.1 |
| 2018 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 12 | 63 | 1,059 | 14 | 16.8 | 88.3 |
| Career | 36 | 135 | 2,219 | 28 | 16.4 | 61.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
62%
ML model output
Context Prob
69%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.139
40.0% TD share at small school — dominant alpha receiver red-zone role+0.317
Physical production synergy+0.272
Top Negative Factors
+4.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.673
Improvement accelerating (+1.8) — getting better faster each year-0.307
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.209