Player breakdown
JJ Nelson
Ala-Birmingham · 2015 Draft Class
5-10156 lbs5th round, 159th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
20%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | ARI | 11 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 299 | 27.2 | 2 | 27.2 |
| 2016 | ARI | 15 | 6 | 74 | 34 | 568 | 16.7 | 6 | 37.9 |
| 2017 | ARI | 16 | 5 | 61 | 29 | 508 | 17.5 | 2 | 31.8 |
| 2018 | ARI | 14 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 64 | 9.1 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 2019 | OAK | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 18 |
| Career | 58 | 16 | 186 | 85 | 1,475 | 17.4 | 11 | 25.4 | |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
8%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.356
BMI 22.4 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (156 lbs)+0.235
Physical production synergy+0.202
Top Negative Factors
+0.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.761
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.641
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.408