Player breakdown
Joe Royer
Cincinnati · 2026 Draft Class
6-5247 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~23
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
13%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 5 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 1.8 |
| 2022 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 2023 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1.3 |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 12 | 50 | 521 | 3 | 10.4 | 43.4 |
| 2025 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 13 | 29 | 416 | 4 | 14.3 | 32 |
| Career | 39 | 83 | 961 | 7 | 11.6 | 24.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
7%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.473
8.8 avg YPR per season — average consistent efficiency+0.150
52.1 conference-adjusted ypg — SEC/Big Ten players penalized less than spread teams+0.138
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+56.9) — getting better faster each year-0.521
0.28 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.402
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.378