Predicting the Pros
Predictions/John Broussard
John Broussard

Player breakdown

John Broussard

San Jose St. · 2007 Draft Class

7th round, 229th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

9%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2007JAX8012412631.5115.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2003San Jose StateWAC1151803.61.6
2004San Jose StateWAC1120343117.231.2
2005San Jose StateWAC1126361513.932.8
2006San Jose StateWAC1352844716.264.9
Career461031,5661315.234.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

1%

ML model output

Context Prob

50%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

2

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1.6 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.264
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.218
Team averaged 22.6 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.170

Top Negative Factors

+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.769
Program WR pipeline: 4% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.764
Improvement accelerating (+45.9) — getting better faster each year-0.561

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)