Player breakdown
John Hightower
Boise St. · 2020 Draft Class
6-1189 lbs5th round, 168th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~30
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
9%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | PHI | 13 | 4 | 29 | 10 | 167 | 16.7 | 0 | 12.8 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Boise State | MWC | 10 | 31 | 504 | 6 | 16.3 | 50.4 |
| 2019 | Boise State | MWC | 14 | 51 | 943 | 8 | 18.5 | 67.4 |
| Career | 24 | 82 | 1,447 | 14 | 17.6 | 60.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
6%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Class YPR rank: top 6% — elite per-target efficiency+0.230
0.58 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.209
BMI 24.9 — ideal frame for NFL WR (189 lbs)+0.173
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.642
+5.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.711
Physical production synergy-0.283