Player breakdown
John Metchie
Alabama · 2022 Draft Class
5-11187 lbs2nd round, 44th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
79%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | HOU | 16 | 0 | 30 | 16 | 158 | 9.9 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | HOU | 13 | 3 | 37 | 24 | 254 | 10.6 | 1 | 19.5 |
| 2025 | 2TM | 16 | 7 | 48 | 33 | 274 | 8.3 | 2 | 17.1 |
| 2025 | PHI | 7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 2025 | NYJ | 9 | 7 | 44 | 29 | 256 | 8.8 | 2 | 28.4 |
| Career | 61 | 17 | 163 | 106 | 960 | 9.1 | 5 | 15.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 5.8 | 1.8 |
| 2020 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 55 | 916 | 6 | 16.7 | 70.5 |
| 2021 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 96 | 1,142 | 8 | 11.9 | 87.8 |
| Career | 39 | 155 | 2,081 | 14 | 13.4 | 53.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
42%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
6
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 33% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.215
Recruit dominator synergy+0.346
1.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.256
Top Negative Factors
-1.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.674
Improvement accelerating (+48.6) — getting better faster each year-0.504
Physical production synergy-0.417