Player breakdown
Johnny Wilson
Florida St. · 2024 Draft Class
6-6231 lbs6th round, 185th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~25
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
45%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | PHI | 16 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 1 | 2.4 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 3 | 6 | 89 | 0 | 14.8 | 29.7 |
| 2021 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 5 | 12 | 154 | 1 | 12.8 | 30.8 |
| 2022 | Florida State | ACC | 13 | 43 | 897 | 5 | 20.9 | 69 |
| 2023 | Florida State | ACC | 10 | 41 | 617 | 2 | 15 | 61.7 |
| Career | 31 | 102 | 1,757 | 8 | 17.2 | 56.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
11%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
8
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 19% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.178
BMI 26.7 — ideal frame for NFL WR (231 lbs)+0.208
Class YPR rank: top 3% — elite per-target efficiency+0.200
Top Negative Factors
+8.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.745
Physical production synergy-0.519
Improvement accelerating (+9.1) — getting better faster each year-0.442