Player breakdown
Jon Olinger
Cincinnati · 2003 Draft Class
5th round, 159th overallAge: ~44
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
34%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Cincinnati | CUSA | 7 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 7.7 | 3.3 |
| 2001 | Cincinnati | CUSA | 11 | 27 | 469 | 7 | 17.4 | 42.6 |
| 2002 | Cincinnati | CUSA | 14 | 54 | 1,114 | 7 | 20.6 | 79.6 |
| Career | 32 | 84 | 1,606 | 14 | 19.1 | 50.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
29%
ML model output
Context Prob
43%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.149
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.257
3.3 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.246
Top Negative Factors
+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.743
Improvement accelerating (+47.4) — getting better faster each year-0.573
Physical production synergy-0.536