Player breakdown
Jonathan Mingo
Mississippi · 2023 Draft Class
6-2220 lbs2nd round, 39th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
18%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | CAR | 15 | 14 | 85 | 43 | 418 | 9.7 | 0 | 27.9 |
| 2024 | 2TM | 17 | 6 | 42 | 17 | 167 | 9.8 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 2024 | CAR | 9 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 121 | 10.1 | 0 | 13.4 |
| 2024 | DAL | 8 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 2025 | DAL | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Career | 55 | 26 | 174 | 78 | 777 | 10.0 | 0 | 14.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 12 | 172 | 1 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| 2020 | Ole Miss | SEC | 10 | 27 | 379 | 3 | 14 | 37.9 |
| 2021 | Ole Miss | SEC | 6 | 22 | 346 | 3 | 15.7 | 57.7 |
| 2022 | Ole Miss | SEC | 13 | 51 | 861 | 5 | 16.9 | 66.2 |
| Career | 41 | 112 | 1,758 | 12 | 15.7 | 42.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
11%
ML model output
Context Prob
54%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 19% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.220
BMI 28.2 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (220 lbs)+0.208
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.92 — elite recruit at elite school+0.203
Top Negative Factors
-14.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.770
Physical production synergy-0.526
0.29 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.455