Player breakdown
Jordan Napier
San Diego State · 2026 Draft Class
6-1195 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
5%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | San Diego State | MWC | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | -2 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | San Diego State | MWC | 12 | 43 | 440 | 4 | 10.2 | 36.7 |
| 2025 | San Diego State | MWC | 10 | 48 | 629 | 2 | 13.1 | 62.9 |
| Career | 26 | 92 | 1,067 | 6 | 11.6 | 41.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
-0.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.272
Recruit dominator synergy+0.258
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.194
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.319
Improvement accelerating (+631.0) — getting better faster each year-0.536
-13.4 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.532