Player breakdown
Josiah Freeman
Fresno State · 2026 Draft Class
6-3196 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $1.2M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
9%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Fresno State | MWC | 13 | 19 | 249 | 1 | 13.1 | 19.2 |
| 2024 | Fresno State | MWC | 4 | 8 | 95 | 2 | 11.9 | 23.8 |
| 2025 | Fresno State | MWC | 12 | 52 | 642 | 6 | 12.3 | 53.5 |
| Career | 29 | 79 | 986 | 9 | 12.5 | 34.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
6%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 12% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.101
Efficiency consistency: 1.05 — highly consistent across seasons+0.204
BMI 24.5 — ideal frame for NFL WR (196 lbs)+0.183
Top Negative Factors
-20.4 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.725
Physical production synergy-0.555
0.31 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.398