Player breakdown
J.R. Russell
Louisville · 2005 Draft Class
6-3206 lbs7th round, 253rd overallAge: ~43
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
22%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Louisville | CUSA | 12 | 14 | 151 | 2 | 10.8 | 12.6 |
| 2002 | Louisville | CUSA | 13 | 24 | 287 | 2 | 12 | 22.1 |
| 2003 | Louisville | CUSA | 13 | 75 | 1,213 | 8 | 16.2 | 93.3 |
| 2004 | Louisville | CUSA | 12 | 73 | 968 | 7 | 13.3 | 80.7 |
| Career | 50 | 186 | 2,619 | 19 | 14.1 | 52.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
17%
ML model output
Context Prob
48%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 18% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.113
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.204
Accounted for 3.07 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.203
Top Negative Factors
-3.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.737
Physical production synergy-0.636
Improvement accelerating (+7.0) — getting better faster each year-0.519