Player breakdown
J.R. Tolver
San Diego St. · 2003 Draft Class
6-1202 lbs5th round, 169th overallAge: ~44
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
13%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | San Diego State | MWC | 11 | 62 | 808 | 1 | 13 | 73.5 |
| 2001 | San Diego State | MWC | 11 | 63 | 878 | 2 | 13.9 | 79.8 |
| 2002 | San Diego State | MWC | 13 | 128 | 1,785 | 13 | 13.9 | 137.3 |
| Career | 35 | 253 | 3,471 | 16 | 13.7 | 99.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
8%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
36.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.319
Speed × production: 151.6 — elite combined athletic output+0.271
Accounted for 3.06 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.204
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.651
Physical production synergy-0.418
Improvement accelerating (+1.2) — getting better faster each year-0.329