Player breakdown
Justin Blackmon
Oklahoma St. · 2012 Draft Class
6-1207 lbs1st round, 5th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~36
EliteBiletnikoff x2All-American x2Did Not Hit
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 105NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
88%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | JAX | 16 | 14 | 132 | 64 | 865 | 13.5 | 5 | 54.1 |
| 2013 | JAX | 4 | 4 | 48 | 29 | 415 | 14.3 | 1 | 103.8 |
| Career | 20 | 18 | 180 | 93 | 1,280 | 13.8 | 6 | 64.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 13 | 20 | 260 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 2010 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 12 | 111 | 1,782 | 20 | 16.1 | 148.5 |
| 2011 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 13 | 122 | 1,522 | 18 | 12.5 | 117.1 |
| Career | 38 | 253 | 3,564 | 40 | 14.1 | 93.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
77%
ML model output
Context Prob
93%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 13% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.153
+37.8 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.289
Physical production synergy+0.287
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+5.8) — getting better faster each year-0.318
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.196
Recruit dominator synergy-0.151