Player breakdown
Justin Hardy
East Carolina · 2015 Draft Class
5-10192 lbs4th round, 107th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
25%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | ATL | 9 | 1 | 36 | 21 | 194 | 9.2 | 0 | 21.6 |
| 2016 | ATL | 16 | 3 | 31 | 21 | 203 | 9.7 | 4 | 12.7 |
| 2017 | ATL | 16 | 1 | 29 | 20 | 221 | 11.1 | 3 | 13.8 |
| 2018 | ATL | 16 | 0 | 22 | 14 | 133 | 9.5 | 2 | 8.3 |
| 2019 | ATL | 16 | 1 | 26 | 19 | 195 | 10.3 | 0 | 12.2 |
| Career | 73 | 6 | 144 | 95 | 946 | 10.0 | 9 | 13.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | East Carolina | CUSA | 10 | 64 | 658 | 6 | 10.3 | 65.8 |
| 2012 | East Carolina | CUSA | 13 | 88 | 1,105 | 11 | 12.6 | 85 |
| 2013 | East Carolina | CUSA | 13 | 114 | 1,284 | 8 | 11.3 | 98.8 |
| 2014 | East Carolina | American | 13 | 121 | 1,494 | 10 | 12.3 | 114.9 |
| Career | 49 | 387 | 4,541 | 35 | 11.7 | 92.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
23%
ML model output
Context Prob
40%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
+38.3 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.238
Recruit dominator synergy+0.213
0.71 TDs/game — dominant red-zone role in college+0.179
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.399
Improvement accelerating (+1.3) — getting better faster each year-0.295
57.0 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.207